The Buffalo Bills (11-6) will travel to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday to face the Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) in the divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs. Both squads scored 40-plus in their Wild Card round victories to advance in the NFL playoff bracket. Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense lit up the Patriots‘ defense en route to a 47-17 win. The Chiefs dominated the Pittsburgh Steelers, winning 42-21.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Kansas City is a two-point favorite and the over-under for total points scored is 54.5 in the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Chiefs vs. Bills picks, be sure to see the 2021 NFL playoff predictions from SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. This season he has been on fire. Hartstein is 70-46-1 in his last 117 NFL sides, for a profit of more than $1800.

In addition, Hartstein has gone an astounding 23-8 in his last 31 NFL picks involving Kansas City, returning $1400 to $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed him is way up. 

Now, Hartstein has zeroed in on Chiefs vs. Bills, and just locked in his NFL playoff picks and divisional round predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL playoff odds and divisional round betting lines for Bills vs. Chiefs:

  • Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -2
  • Bills vs. Chiefs over-under: 54.5 points
  • Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -130, Buffalo +110
  • KC: Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home favorites
  • BUF: Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall

Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Chiefs can cover

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes had another strong season. He was fourth in passing yards (4,839), fourth in passing touchdowns (37), and fifth in QBR (62.4). The four-time Pro Bowler tossed at least three passing touchdowns in seven games. Mahomes is a phenomenal playmaker and can make any throw on the field with ease.

The 2018 NFL MVP is looking to lead the Chiefs to their fourth straight AFC title game. These two teams meet in the 2020 AFC Championship Game, and Mahomes was lights-out. The Texas Tech product went 29-of-38 for 325 yards with three passing touchdowns in the win. Mahomes is looking to continue his postseason success and improve to 7-2 in the playoffs. 

Why the Bills can cover 

Buffalo heads into this contest with one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Bills finished the season ranked fifth in total offense (381.9) and third in scoring (29.4). This unit is headlined by quarterback Josh Allen. The Wyoming product finished the year eighth in passing yards (4,407) and seventh in passing touchdowns (36). Allen lit up the Patriots’ defense last week. He went 21-of-25 for 308 yards and five passing touchdowns.

This potent offense also features receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end Dawson Knox. Diggs finished the season ranked in the top 10 in multiple categories. The 2020 First-Team All-Pro was tied for ninth in receptions (103), eighth in receiving yards (1,225) and tied for sixth in touchdowns (10). Knox has developed into one of Allen’s favorite targets. The Ole Miss product has reeled in 49 passes for 587 yards and nine scores. Knox is coming off a great performance. The 2019 third-round pick caught five passes for 89 yards and two touchdowns. 

How to make Bills vs Chiefs picks

For Sunday’s divisional round matchup, Hartstein is leaning over on the point total. He also has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills in Sunday’s 2022 NFL playoff divisional round matchup? And which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Larry Hartstein’s Bills vs. Chiefs pick and analysis, all from the NFL expert who’s 23-8 on his latest against the spread picks involving Kansas City, and find out.

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By MD Abdullah

Abdullah is a former educator, lifelong money nerd, and a Plutus Award-winning freelance writer who specializes in the scientific research behind irrational money behaviors. Her background in education allows her to make complex financial topics relatable and easily understood by the layperson. She is the author of four books, including End Financial Stress Now and The Five Years Before You Retire.

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